Transnistria’s Crisis deepens amid energy disruptions: what it means for Europe

Transnistria, a breakaway province of Moldova aligned with Russia, faces a severe energy crisis after Ukraine suspended a Russian gas deal that supplied the region. The situation has left hundreds of thousands without heating, gas, or electricity as the Kremlin-backed leadership in Tiraspol declined alternative energy solutions offered by Moldova.

This crisis has also impacted Moldova, which relied on Transnistria’s gas-fired power plant for a third of its electricity. The country’s pro-European leaders accuse Moscow of leveraging “gas blackmail” to destabilize Moldova and warn of a potential Russia-induced security crisis.

Understanding Transnistria

With a population of around 400,000, Transnistria has been under pro-Russian separatist control since 1992 but remains internationally recognized as part of Moldova. The region hosts about 1,500 Russian troops and the Cobasna ammunition depot, one of Europe’s largest weapons storage facilities.

Many residents hold multiple citizenships, including Moldovan, Russian, and Ukrainian. Transnistria also has its own currency, the Transnistrian ruble, and operates its own army.

Russia’s Role and Limitations

Transnistria’s unresolved status and dependency on Moscow give Russia a significant influence over Moldova. However, Moscow’s attempts to create a land corridor to Transnistria via southern Ukraine were thwarted by Kyiv’s forces during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Despite these setbacks, Moscow continues to interfere in Moldova’s internal affairs, as seen during recent elections overshadowed by allegations of Russian vote-buying.

Impact on Moldova’s EU Aspirations

Transnistria’s separatist status has historically hindered Moldova’s path to EU membership. While the EU previously avoided admitting countries with unresolved conflicts, it has softened its stance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, granting Moldova candidate status. However, whether Moldova can join the EU without resolving the Transnistria issue remains uncertain.

Economic Shifts in Transnistria

The ongoing energy crisis comes amid a sharp decline in Transnistria’s trade with Russia, which fell by 45% in 2024. Russian energy imports plummeted by 46%, representing a major blow to the region’s economy.

Conversely, trade with the EU grew by 12%, driven by increased imports and exports. Romania has become Transnistria’s top EU trading partner, accounting for 14.6% of the region’s trade in 2024.

Moldova’s Response and Future Prospects

Moldova has offered emergency aid and alternative energy supplies to Transnistria, but the region’s leadership has rejected these proposals. Prime Minister Dorin Recean suggests the current crisis could eventually undermine Transnistria’s self-proclaimed independence.

Although Moldova has no plans for military action, integrating Transnistria could present challenges, given its largely pro-Russian population and distrust of the central government.

As Europe closely monitors the situation, the crisis highlights the delicate balance of power in the region and the broader implications for European security and energy stability.