Recent data from the Ministry of the Interior reveals that Estonia’s population growth in 2024 was limited to Harju, Tartu, and Hiiu counties, while the remaining counties experienced declines. Ida-Viru County faced the most significant drop, losing 1,800 residents last year.
Ida-Viru County’s population decline has been ongoing for decades, particularly in major cities like Narva, which loses about 1,000 residents annually due to low birth rates, high mortality rates, and migration to more attractive urban centers. Narva’s current population stands at 52,000 but is projected to fall to 45,000 within the next two decades. Initial hopes that immigration could offset the decline have been dampened by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Narva Mayor Katri Raik expressed concerns about the city’s future, emphasizing the need for residents to regain faith in Narva. “We once envisioned Narva as a gateway for newcomers from Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, but that plan is no longer feasible,” Raik stated. The city saw a decrease of 800 residents in the past year.
Kohtla-Järve, another city in Ida-Viru County, reported a population decline of over 400 residents last year. Mayor Henri Kaselo noted that the situation could have been worse without the presence of universities and added pay incentives for teachers and police officers. He highlighted the positive impact of the Just Transition Fund, which is expected to create around 500 new jobs in the next two years, potentially stabilizing the population.
Currently, Ida-Viru County has 128,000 residents, down by 35,000 from 15 years ago.
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