After two years of conflict, a sense of stalemate has characterized Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, recent developments have sparked discussions about whether the war could conclude in 2025. Key factors include battlefield dynamics, public sentiment, and the upcoming inauguration of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war swiftly.
Analysts widely agree that a durable peace deal remains unlikely in the near term. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears determined to maintain leverage over Ukraine, seeking to ensure Moscow remains a persistent threat to Kyiv and the West. Conversely, Ukraine, backed by Western allies, is resolute in refusing concessions that would formalize Russian control over occupied territories or leave its aggressor unaccountable for wartime atrocities.
“We are far from an end to the war,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Nevertheless, discussions of a potential ceasefire are gaining traction, particularly in light of Trump’s promises to broker negotiations. According to Olga Oliker of the Crisis Group, there is a likelihood of “de facto” ceasefires or tacit agreements emerging over the next year.
Territorial disputes and security guarantees remain the primary obstacles to any agreement. Ukraine’s slow progress on the battlefield and significant losses may prompt discussions of a deal, possibly leaving Russian-occupied territories under de facto control. However, Putin has signaled that formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over all annexed regions is non-negotiable a stance Kyiv finds unacceptable.
Security guarantees for Ukraine also present a major challenge. Russia vehemently opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership and is likely to resist any arrangements resembling NATO’s protections. “It’s very hard to see a security assurance that satisfies both sides,” Gould-Davies said.
Western nations face the complex task of sustaining their support for Ukraine while navigating internal political pressures. Analysts suggest Trump’s administration could attempt to leverage U.S. aid to influence both Kyiv and Moscow. However, specifics of Trump’s proposed strategy remain unclear.
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be playing a double game—projecting readiness for compromise while erecting barriers to any meaningful negotiations. Putin’s rhetoric often mixes signals, offering vague promises of flexibility while reiterating demands for a Ukraine that is demilitarized and barred from Western alliances.
Even if a ceasefire is reached, analysts caution against treating it as a resolution. Russia’s political and economic systems are now entrenched in wartime dynamics, making a pivot to lasting peace challenging.
“Putin believes that Russia can outlast Ukraine militarily and wear down the West politically,” Gould-Davies noted. This approach hinges on maintaining a confrontation with the West as a cornerstone of Kremlin policy.
Ruth Deyermond of King’s College London warns that Western nations must avoid prematurely resetting relations with Russia after any ceasefire. “That would be an enormous mistake. Russia will continue to pose the most serious and immediate threat to European security,” she said.
While 2025 could bring a ceasefire or a temporary pause in hostilities, a comprehensive and enduring peace deal remains elusive. The war in Ukraine is deeply rooted in geopolitical rivalries and irreconcilable goals, making the path to resolution fraught with challenges and uncertainties.
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