Xi Jinping unlikely to attend Trump’s inauguration despite invitation, Say Experts

Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to accept an invitation to attend President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, a move that experts believe carries too many risks for Beijing.

Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed on Thursday that Trump extended the invitation, but the Chinese Embassy in Washington declined to comment. Analysts suggest the gesture is unlikely to alter the competitive dynamics between the two nations.

Challenges to Xi’s Attendance

Danny Russel, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, stated that Xi attending the ceremony could be seen as reducing his stature to that of a mere guest celebrating a foreign leader’s victory.

“Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, D.C., in January, surrounded by hawkish members of Congress, as Trump delivers his inaugural address?” Russel remarked.

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, noted that there is no precedent or protocol for a Chinese leader attending a U.S. presidential inauguration. She highlighted potential risks, such as the presence of Taiwan’s top diplomat, which could provoke tensions. Beijing regards Taiwan as its territory and views U.S. actions supporting Taiwan as crossing a red line.

Moreover, Trump’s campaign threats to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods add another layer of risk. “If Xi were to attend and Trump follows through on such policies, it would be seen as a loss of face for Beijing,” Sun explained.

Chinese officials are also known to insist on full state visit protocols for their leader’s trips abroad, which are unlikely to be met at an inauguration.

Future of U.S.-China Relations

Despite the unlikelihood of Xi attending, experts believe planning is already underway for a potential meeting between the two leaders. Trump favors direct, in-person negotiations, and Beijing may view this as an opportunity to secure more favorable terms.

However, Trump’s return to the White House is expected to heighten tensions. He has selected several vocal critics of China for key Cabinet positions, such as Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz as national security adviser.

China has adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” approach but has signaled readiness to retaliate if the U.S. imposes tariffs or takes other adversarial actions.

Yun Sun cautioned that Trump’s outreach, such as the inauguration invitation, does not preclude aggressive policies. “For Trump, there’s no contradiction between carrot and stick,” she said. “For China, it’s different they are wary of being caught off guard, whether Trump’s message is friendly or hostile.”

As Trump prepares to take office, the already strained U.S.-China relationship appears poised for further turbulence.