With more than 50 million people in need of immediate food assistance in East Africa, La Niña will likely trigger below-average rainfall, resulting in millions of more people going hungry in 2021.
Starting in mid-December, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Uganda are likely to suffer from below average rainfall as a result of a strong La Niña, which could result in millions more people going hungry in 2021.
Lydia Zigomo, Oxfam in Horn, East, and Central Africa Regional Director, said: “The forecasted dry season will be the last straw for many, devastating their remaining crops and cutting their lifeline of food and income.”
The climate crisis is causing erratic weather patterns across the world including longer and more severe droughts across the Horn, East and Central Africa region. It is likely to increase the frequency and strength of La Nina events. Any rainfall that does come is likely to arrive in heavier bursts devastating crops by flooding or washing away recently planted seeds and seedlings.
Farmers, who make up almost 80 per cent of the region’s population, have already been hit hard by severe floods and the biggest desert locust swarms in 70 years – both supercharged by the climate crisis – as well as the economic fallout of COVID-19 pandemic.
Since January, locusts have caused $8.5 billion worth of damage across the region including to nearly 100,000 hectares of cropland in Somalia, an estimated 200,000 hectares in Ethiopia and about 70,000 hectares in Kenya, starving livestock and causing food shortages.
The infestation in Ethiopia is feared to be the worst on record and threatens the “meher” harvest, which contributes 80% of the country’s total harvest. According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation, swarms are expected to move south in Somalia and Ethiopia, reaching northern Kenya from mid-December. A single swarm can contain up to 150 million locusts per square kilometre of farmland.
Noor Maalim Abdi, a Kenyan farmer, said: “We used to have three meals a day, but with the locusts and COVID-19, not anymore. For now, we sell our animals to sustain our families but with the curfews and lockdown it’s not easy. Our movement is restricted.”
Abdilaahi Wayrah, a Somali farmer who works with Oxfam, said: “The locusts destroyed our crops at the time we were expecting to harvest. I’ve never seen infestations like this before, and the saddest thing was that we couldn’t do anything about it.
“Then COVID-19 came, and because of the lockdown, seed and pesticides prices went up. We could not afford to buy these necessary things. We don’t have enough food at the moment, but we’re trying to rebuild again.”
Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and Tanzania were responsible for less than 0.2% of the global carbon emissions between 1990-2015. The top 10 most polluting countries, including US, China and Japan were responsible for 500 times more carbon emissions in the same period.
Zigomo added: “The incredible resilience of the most vulnerable people across the Horn, East, and Central Africa is being tested to breaking point by a combination of disasters that are not of their making.
“Urgent action is needed to provide the assistance desperately needed by millions of hungry people.
“World leaders must also commit to more ambitious cuts in carbon emissions to prevent an even more catastrophic rise in global temperatures. Rich polluting industrial nations need to provide more climate finance to help poor communities- and particularly farming communities – adapt to a changing climate. They should also support vulnerable countries with new sources of international finance for loss and damage caused by more extreme and erratic weather.”
Oxfam and its partners are supporting more than 897,000 people in Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, Somalia, and Tanzania with food, clean water, sanitation, cash assistance and seeds. Oxfam has also reached 3.5 million people in September and 2.6 million in October with COVID-related support.
Notes to Editors
Spokespersons available. To arrange interviews contact: Tania Corbett – tcorbett1@Oxfam.org.uk or 07824 824 359 The total cumulative emissions of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda between1990 – 2015 amounted to only 0.89GtCO2.
The top 10 emitting countries in terms of cumulative emissions 1990-2015 were: US, China, Japan, Russia, India, Germany, UK, Italy, Canada, France. Together they emitted about 468GtCO2 over the 25 years period.
Download Oxfam’s carbon inequality report HERE
La Niña refers to cooler than usual ocean temperatures in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, which occurs on average every 3 – 7 years, and usually affects temperatures, precipitation, and storm patterns in many parts of the world. In East Africa, La Niña results in drier than usual seasons. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) the current La Niña event could last until 2021 and is expected to be moderate to strong.
The climate crisis is causing longer and more severe droughts across the Horn, East, and Central Africa region, and is likely to increase the frequency and strength of La Nina events, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts
Source for agriculture population in East HERE Ethiopia is now the epicenter of the locust crisis. Swarms are moving both towards Somali region but also towards Eritrea and further north to eastern Sudan. If rains continue, we might have another generation developing with 3 generations breeding between now and April 2021 (FAO) Locustwatch The pandemic has been having a devastating impact on already fragile livelihoods and unstable economies in the region. Some of these impacts include reduced agricultural productivity, weak supply chains, increased cross border trade tensions, limited employment prospects.
With just 1C of warming, the climate crisis is causing longer and more severe droughts across the Horn, East and Central Africa region, and is likely to increase the frequency and strength of La Nina events. Without urgent action scientists predict at least 3C of warming by the end of the century.